We’re approaching the end of 2025, which also means the end of the first quarter of the 21st century, which seems like a good time to take stock, set goals for the next quarter century, and start talking about the strategies that can make such goals real. I am not going to offer a detailed strategy here. However, I am going to make the case that we (that includes you) should start thinking about political strategy on a 25-year timeline.
The regime doesn’t want us to think strategically. Thinking strategically requires envisioning a goal, articulating how far we are from that goal, identifying threats and obstacles to the goal, and planning a course to the goal. They don’t want us doing any of that.
The regime definitely doesn’t want us to think about 2050. They don’t even want us to think about 2030. They don’t want us to think past the next 24 hours, let alone 25 years. They want us to be so reactionary, cowed, scared, confused, and psychologically disempowered that we are unable to envision — let alone plan — for a better future.
We can resist first by liberating our minds, expanding our mental scope, and remembering our collective agency.
Managing Expectations
This refrain has helped me keep something close to a level head for the past dozen years:
“High standards, low expectations.”
Given where we are, the threats we face, and how long we’ve been letting things get bad, we shouldn’t expect 2050 to be great. It might not even be a whole lot better than today. It could even be worse. At minimum, we should aim to be on an upward path by 2050. That means getting the worst parts of the century over with and rebuilding as soon as possible.
That said, despite my inclination to have low expectations, there is no reason to not aim higher. We can envision a 2050 which isn’t just the least bad. We can envision a 2050 which is actually better than 2025. We can set a high standard for what we deserve and what we can create.
Setting a Goal
Let’s start with some key values and concepts. I’ll offer a short list, just as a conversation starter. I suggest we aim to create a 2050 which is:
- Sustainable: We have passed the worst of climate destruction and are on a path to recovery.
- Humanistic: Prioritizing human well-being and power, we have avoided the worst-case AI scenarios, reduced the harm from AI.
- Peaceful: We have avoided civil war in the US and resolved the great power conflict between the US and China.
- Democratic: Most of our democracies, including the US, have survived a generational struggle with authoritarianism, instituted substantial reforms to core institutions, and developed a deeper cultural commitment to truth.
- Equitable: We have reversed the decades-long redistribution project which stole wealth and power from the many and centralized it in the hands of a few.
- Specifically on housing: Every person in Silicon Valley (and America) has a safe, stable, affordable home, is able to live in the community of their choice, and can move when they need or want to.
Threats, Obstacles, & Adversaries
Part of what makes strategic thinking hard right now is that we are overwhelmed by threats and obstacles. Rather than create an endless list, we can group these. As above, this is a starting point.
Threats and Obstacles
- Anti-democratic movements (e.g. fascism; tech feudalism).
- Institutions in need of renewal, reform, or replacement (e.g. SCOTUS; election systems).
- Social-Economic (e.g. housing; wealth hoarding).
- Technological (e.g. climate change, artificial intelligence).
Adversaries
Beyond the depersonalized obstacles and threats above, who has agency in making things bad? Who has an interest in stopping us from achieving our goal of a better 2050? We can categorize our adversaries into a few groups. And it’s worth noting where there may be overlap between them.
- Billionaire oligarchs, especially those in fossil fuels, tech, and finance.
- Aspiring and current leaders of anti-democratic movements and government.
- Eager supporters of the above. These true believers will be hard to persuade.
- Enablers of the above.Unlike the true believers, enablers are sometimes reluctant, but motivated by fear and feel invested in the status quo. They may be swayable, especially if they realize the best way to protect themselves is to actually be on the right side of history.
What’s Next?
Now, how do we get from where we are to where we want to get? How do we overcome our obstacles and marginalize our adversaries? That’s what we need to start strategizing about.
Welcome to the next quarter century.